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But Ivanovic boldly attacked off (19th Jun 17 at 3:34am UTC)Quote Reply
One of the e-mails I receive frequently about the application of advanced statistics in professional hockey regards “PDO”, and why the metric is so often referenced when discussing outlier performance. Tarik Cohen Youth Jersey . PDO is nothing more than a combination of shooting percentage and save percentage, expressed in thousands. It’s a simple calculation, but imperative when conducting analysis and forecasting future outcomes. The theory behind PDO is that shooting percentage is primarily luck-driven, and save-percentage is primarily luck-driven, and at the team-level, teams will consistently regress towards this 1,000 (i.e., the league average) number. Teams with extremely high PDO’s, say 1020 and above, are great bets to regress unfavorably. Teams with extremely low PDO’s, say 980 and below, are great bets to regress favorably. From time to time, we’ll see small deviations in genuinely great and genuinely terrible teams. But in most cases, it simply pays to (a) be skeptical that any percentage-fueled run is real; (b) focus on winning the shot-differential battle, because shot-differentials will predict future outcome far better than past shooting and save percentages will. PDO was at the heart of the 2013-2014 Toronto Maple Leafs debate – a team whose predictable and catastrophic end-of-year collapse pushed professional hockey into the analytics era. A bunch of smart hires were made by organizations around the league, and it seemed as though the debate over percentage-fueled runs and team-level shot quality myths were put to bed. Still, there seems to be some lingering doubt. Many, many words have been spilled about the 2013-2014 Colorado Avalanche, a team that – despite endless precaution – decided to double-down on mythological shot quality, ignoring innumerable red flags in the process. It wasn’t just the Avalanche organization buying stock, either. Bovada, an online sportsbook with a vested interest in outcomes, opened with Colorado as a 98.5 point team. On the other hand, that same online sportsbook opened up with the New Jersey Devils as an 83.5 point team – 15-points less than Colorado. Are these two teams fifteen points different? It’s possible the answer is yes, but not in the way you’d think. First, let’s look at each team’s ability to control play via Corsi%, starting with game one of last season and running it through today’s data. We’ll use a 10-game rolling average to smooth out results. Not a whole lot has changed from last year to this year, which is signified by the vertical line at the game 82 mark. New Jersey has consistently earned a better percentage of the shot-share, never once dipping below the 50% threshold over any 10-game stretch. Colorado, on the other hand, has been consistently subpar at controlling play. Other than a five-game window (31-36), they’ve been regularly under 50%. If you looked solely at the possession numbers and were aware of the tight correlation between controlling the puck and winning in today’s NHL, you would think that New Jersey was a playoff caliber team. Colorado? A lottery team. But, the hockey gods are funny sometimes. We know Colorado’s off to a horrendous and predictable 3-6-5 start, but the possession numbers don’t explain why things suddenly went south. Nor does it explain why New Jersey – who was a possession world-beater last year – failed to make the post-season. So, let’s go to the percentages, captured by the aforementioned PDO. Again, it’s more or less a measure of “puck luck”, and the likelihood of a team’s number regressing to 1,000 is extremely strong. We’ll roll Colorado and New Jersey’s PDO over 10-games to again smooth things a bit. Colorado sat well above the 1,000 mark for the vast majority of last season. New Jersey sat well below the 1,000 mark for the vast majority of last season. Whereas Colorado (8.07% Sh%, .931 SV%) saw all of the bounces at 5-on-5, New Jersey (7.12 Sh%, .914 SV%) did not. I think the dividing vertical lines on both of these graphs are amazing in the sense that they capture precisely what we’re looking for in terms of forecasting future outcome. When it came to a team’s ability to control play at 5-on-5 via Corsi%, both teams in 2014-2015 are reasonably near their respective 2013-2014 performance. This is because puck possession is repeatable. On the PDO graph, it’s the total opposite. The shooting and save percentages have flipped entirely, which is consistent with what we have seen in PDO volatility across many different teams over many, many years. New Jersey may have made the right move going from Martin Brodeur to Cory Schneider, but a goaltending switch wouldn’t explain how the team jumped from 26th to 14th in shooting percentage seemingly overnight. Randomness, of course, would. Combine that with generally out-possessing the opposition, and you have a respectable 6-4-2 record. On the Colorado side, the team has seen somewhat unfavorable percentage luck, but it’s far closer to the league averages than anything the team experienced last year. And, of course, the team is still getting drilled in the shot department. It’s a combination that generally ends up in fan bases paying attention to the draft lottery, rather than preparing for the post-season. Adam Shaheen Bears Jersey .Jeff Green, playing in his second preseason game after missing the first four because of a calf strain, had 18 points. The Celtics (3-3) shot 47.2 per cent from the floor and made 15 of 37 3-point attempts. Tarik Cohen Bears Jersey . "I have had no discussions with Chad Johnson or his representation," Popp said Friday in an email. However, he appeared to confirm a report on Twitter from TSN this week that Johnson was on Montreals negotiation list. http://www.bearsauthoritystore.com/Authentic-Mitchell-Trubisky-Bears-Jersey/ . The 22-year-old Spanish midfielder recently signed a new three-year contract with Chelsea, and after spending last season on loan with Valencia in La Liga, Romeu will move to the Bundesliga for the 2014-15 campaign.BIRMINGHAM, England -- Former world No. 1 Ana Ivanovic, who admits to a dislike of competing on grass, moved within one win of her first final on the surface with her third confident victory in a row at the Aegon Classic on Friday. The top-seeded Serbian beat the sixth-seeded Czech, Klara Koukalova, 6-1, 6-4 to reach the semifinals of the Wimbledon warm-up event. Ivanovic has described playing on grass as "like being stuck to the ground all of a sudden," but there was little wrong with her movement nor any evident lack of self-belief as she forcefully completed her win in 72 minutes. There was a 20-minute phase in the second set when Koukalova, who has a grass-court title to her name, seemed capable of regaining parity and held service up until 4-3. But Ivanovic boldly attacked off the ground to break serve in the psychologically crucial moments of the ninth game, and closed out the match without fuss. "Its a tough transition, not only in the body and thhe movement, but also in the mindset," Ivanovic said of her improved grass-court showing. Adam Shaheen Jersey. She was even now able to believe she could win the tournament. "I have more confidence. Its about rhythm and getting ready for the next match. Now I have the flow," she said. Ivanovic will meet surprise semifinalist Zhang Shuai, the ninth-seeded Chinese player who patiently took advantage of an error-prone, self-critical Sloane Stephens, the third-seeded American, to win 6-3, 6-1. There will not be a fairytale finalist in the bottom half. Kimiko Date-Krumm, the 43-year-old Japanese who ousted defending champion Daniela Hantuchova on Thursday, was unable to emerge fresh for a fourth consecutive day, lasting only three-quarters of an hour in a 6-1, 6-0 loss to 16th-seeded Casey Dellacqua of Australia. In the remaining quarterfinal, Barbora Zahlavova Strycova of the Czech Republic defeated fourth-seeded Kirsten Flipkens of Belgium 6-4, 6-2. Cheap NFL Jerseys Wholesale Jerseys Wholesale NFL Jerseys Jerseys From China Wholesale NFL Jerseys Cheap NFL Jerseys Cheap Jerseys ' ' '
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